Sunday, June 03, 2012

How Walker is lying with stats on the jobs question.

Even if the unvetted numbers from BLS are correct, it doesn't help Walker's case.

Walker's jobs record an unmitigated disaster - JSOnline
But let's assume that the QCEW data are correct - what do they really tell us? First, the QCEW numbers run through only December 2011 - but all of the available data suggest that job losses under Walker have accelerated in 2012. So the QCEW numbers only give us, at best, a partial snapshot of jobs performance under Walker, including relatively good numbers from his first months in office when his policies weren't even in effect, and tell us nothing about the most recent, apparently worsening economic period.
Second, the QCEW numbers released by Walker are presented in a vacuum - there is no comparative benchmarking to other states (because, unlike Walker, other governors have respected the apolitical integrity of the federal statistical system and not prematurely leaked the QCEW numbers). But, we can compare these Wisconsin numbers to national trends, and in that context Walker's record looks awful: between December 2010-'11, the QCEW preliminary data show a 0.8% increase in Wisconsin employment; by contrast, employment nationally grew by 1.4% during that same period.
In other words, even using the muddled, misleading and politicized figures released by Walker, his "best-case" data show job growth in Wisconsin at only 57% of the national rate during his first year in office. And this does not even include the first quarter of 2012, when, at least according to CES estimates, Wisconsin's job performance fell off the cliff.

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